Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts

Friday, December 9, 2016

Farrah Abraham vs. Amber Portwood: An In-Depth Analysis of the Fight of the Year!

As you’ve likely heard by now, Farrah Abraham fought Amber Portwood during Monday night’s Teen Mom reunion show, in what will likely be remembered as one of the great throwdowns in the history of reality television.



We’ve seen scuffles on the show before (Farrah vs. random producer springs immediately to mind), but nothing on par with what we saw on Monday night.



It all started when Farrah doubled-down on Simon Saran’s claims that Amber’s boyfriend, Matt Baier, is a pedophile.


Not surprisingly, Amber didn’t take this well, and ran back out on stage to have a word with Farrah.


That’s when things got ugly. 


“Just because somebody’s 20 years older than you doesn’t mean he’s a f–king pedophile,” Amber shouted.



Various crew members assembled to try and prevent the scuffle from getting physical, but by that point, even they probably knew it was too late.


Farrah and Amber squared off, with Farrah seemingly have no real expectation that Amber would initiate an actual fight.


After all, usually it’s Farrah who’s the batsh-t one in any given situation.


To her surprise, however, Amber really did take a swing …



Unfortunately, she has about as much accuracy as Orlando Bloom going after Justin Bieber.


We’re not saying we wanted to see Farrah get seriously hurt or anything, but seeing her get one stinging, well-received smack across the face would’ve been pretty satisfying.


At least she gave us one of the all-time great reaction faces:



Anyway, things quickly went from real to really real.


Matt rushed out and wound up going toe-to-toe with Farrah’s dad, Michael Abraham.


We’ve known for quite some time that Baier is a douche, but the way he made the situation infinitely worse by knocking a retiree to the ground made us think we’d underestimated his douchiness.



Michael says Baier essentially crippled him, leaving him bedridden due to a knee injury.


You can bet that Baier has a lawsuit coming his way.


Fortunately, he’s been sued for paternity multiple times in the past year, so he probably knows a good lawyer.


There’s so much terribleness in this three-minute span that it’s hard to pinpoint a real villain …



Rather it would be, were it not for the presence of Simon Saran, who instigated the situation, then stood around and laughed while sh-t hit the fan and his girlfriend nearly got smacked.


In the end, we lost a lot of respect for people we had very little respect for in the first place, but no one came off looking worse than Simon.


He and Farrah deserve each other, but we still hope she kicks him to the curb ASAP.



And this has been your round-by-round analysis of the bout that made Holm vs. Rousey look like amateur hour.


Okay, that may be a bit of an exaggeration, but we got to see some genuine terror momentarily flash across Farrah’s face, and that is something for which we’ll forever be grateful.


Watch Teen Mom online for more deplorable behavior from people who shouldn’t be anywhere near children.


(Except you, Amber. You aight.)



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Monday, November 7, 2016

Who Will Be President? Election 2016 Polls, Predictions & Analysis Say ...

After a long and tumultuous campaign season, the question of who will be President will finally be answered in a little over 24 hours.


Either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States. That much we know. The rest is up to the voters.


Let’s break down where things stand on the final day before an election unlike any other in history, and with so much at stake for America …



As of Monday morning, polls show a modest but not insurmountable lead for Hillary Clinton, the baggage-laden Democratic nominee.


She’s ahead of controversial Republican Donald Trump in both two-way matchups and a four-way race against Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.


Aggregators of polling data agree that her lead is somewhere in the range of 2-3 percent nationally, with similarly close races statewide.


Is 2-3 percent within the margin of error?


Indeed, and we can guarantee you Clinton is not measuring the Oval Office drapes yet. Nevertheless, she remains a modest favorite Tuesday.



A few weeks ago, a more comfortable Clinton win seemed likely, and a landslide victory even felt like something within the realm of possibility.


So much for that.


Clinton led in national polls consistently by 6-7 points, benefiting from three strong presidential debate performances and Trump … being Trump.


The recent reopening of the FBI’s probe into Clinton’s private email server helped galvanize Trump’s base, however, and tighten the race.


How much impact the FBI had – as opposed to reliably Republican voters “coming home” to the Donald as they would anyway – is unclear.


It didn’t help her, however; Clinton’s once-safe lead dwindled down to toss-up territory, even as the FBI didn’t change its findings ultimately.



Clinton probably never thought she’d be sweating it out at this point in her second White House bid, but she undeniably (and wisely) is.


No candidate in 2012, 2008 or 2004 improved their national polling by more than two points in the two weeks prior to Election. Trump has.


Still, it may not be enough to overcome his own ceiling with independents, and the Clinton campaigns superior’s organizational structure.


If Clinton and Trump perform at current polling levels (or if Clinton does better than expected), she will win, either by a little or a lot.


There are still real paths to a Trump victory, via polling errors and/or a late uprising of previously undetected support for the businessman.


How great are those odds really, though?




EV Map 1



Predictive models at FiveThirtyEight, the Upshot (New York Times) and the Huffington Post all project a Clinton win … of varying degrees.


The HuffPost model cites a ridiculous 1.6% chance of a Trump win, while FiveThirtyEight is more bullish, giving him once chance in three.


In fairness, Trump does have a real shot.


See the map above. With 270 Electoral Votes needed to win, Clinton would claim 301 – more than enough – if every state’s polling is accurate.


It’s more complicated than that, however.


Margins in Florida in particular are razor-thin, while Trump is gaining ground in New Hampshire. Take away their 33 combined Electoral Votes?


You could be looking at President Trump. On the flip side, Clinton is competitive in 5-6 red states above, so he has no margin for error.




EV Map 2



This second map (both courtesy of Real Clear Politics) offers a better indication of the extent of both candidates leads in the polls, if any.


Using only leads determined to be safe or reasonably safe, Clinton’s lead in the Electoral College shrinks to 203-164, with 171 in play.


Still, Trump’s battle is more uphill than Hillary’s.


North Carolina and Florida are very close – within a percent – but if she can pull out either one, it’s pretty much curtains for the Donald.


Even if Trump wins both of those states as well as Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Arizona, he’ll be at 259 Electoral Votes – very close, but not quite there.


Unless he can outperform his polling across the nation and “steal” a Pennsylvania or Michigan (he trails in both), he will come up short.


It’s just a matter of how short.



In the end, we would bet on a Trump victory based on this analysis. However, we’ve also learned never to count out Donald or his supporters.


The central tradeoffs of Trump’s candidacy – his outsider persona and populist stances widely appeal to a wide swath of the electorate.


They also alienate an equally wide swath.


Turning off Hispanics, women, and even traditional Republican groups in his brash run for the Republican nomination put him in a hole.


One has yet to show he can climb out of.


For all of Clinton’s many flaws, and her own widespread unpopularity, she seems poised to eke this one out and make history Tuesday.


Thoughts? Comments? Votes? Hit it!



And the Winner is?


Donald, Hillary or… Gary? Who has your vote to be the next President of the United States? View Poll »





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